The Coming Oil Crisis Part III (and Final Part)

Preparing for a Peak Oil Crisis?
You may have guessed from my blogs that I hate not knowing what is going on. I am an information Hoover gobbling it up as fast as I can. As GI Joe says, knowing is half the battle; and like Admiral Kirk, I don't like to lose. That all adds up to a lot of unrelated items in the news suddenly making sense when I apply them in context to Peak Oil. Some people out there are preparing for Peak Oil and they are among the rich and powerful.

Back in early November of 2009, probably the low point of the recession, the MSM and Fox News all blandly reported that the alleged 'Wizard of Wall Street' Warren Buffett bought the BNSF Railroad. (That's Burlington Northern Santa Fe for the non Railroad literate.) They all focused on the price he paid: $26.3 Billion. As I was home alone at the time, I asked Stitch and Disney Cruiseline Chip (the stuffed animals that sit near my chair) why he would buy into a dying industry like the railroad. Well now it makes sense. CSX railroad advertises that it can haul a ton of goods 400+ miles on a gallon of diesel and I imagine BNSF is no different. Buffett is hedging on a major oil shock or Peak Oil crisis. Trucking will quickly be a thing of the past because of fuel prices and the only reasonably cost effective mass transport will be rail.

In my research I also found a little tidbit that ultimately made my decision to write about the subject. While the great environmentalist Algore's mansion is sucking down resources like a black hole feeding off a nearby star, that 'evil oil man' and former president George W Bush has quietly fitted his Crawford, TX ranch with alternate energy sources and taken it off the grid. You think he knows something we don't?

President Bush is a believer in Peak Oil and who better to judge the likelihood of that event than a former oil man? Some conspiracists believe that Peak Oil was part of his reasoning for invading Iraq. Being half a world away in a Peak Oil crisis would put the US at a severe disadvantage against China, Russia, and the EU who all have land access to the Middle East. Establishing a permanent US military presence there would be a vital strategic advantage during a Peak Oil crisis. I suppose its plausible but the same people also believe that is why Bush engineered the 9/11 disaster so that's going to need an entire salt lick of skepticism with it for me. I will say though that if he did use 9/11 to establish the US there for Peak Oil reasons and they come to pass...we might want to find another hill in South Dakota to carve his face on; assuming we manage to hold on to the remaining oil.

President Bush also expanded the Strategic Oil Reserve and filled it to capacity (it was usually at about 90% capacity). The Reserve will keep some vital services going but it is mainly to keep the military going in a crisis.

Since 1998 there have been a number of Oil company mergers. This could be a sign of Peak Oil. Those who cannot compete are absorbed by those who can. In 1998-99 BP, Amoco, and Arco merged. Exxon and Mobil merged in 1999. Then Chevron-Texaco who eventually gobbled up ailing Unocal. Then came Phillips and Conoco. Royal Dutch and Shell put it together in 2005. BP came within a hair's breadth of merging with Royal Dutch-Shell to form a mega-oil company recently as well. This isn't normal merging to create a monopoly as the left likes to believe. This is merging in order to survive. I suspect that it is because they see Peak Oil coming or have facts that show its already here and the wars in the boardrooms are warnings of wars in the oil fields.

The oil companies are also buying back their stock at what should be an alarming rate (but isn't even noted by the MSM). Exxon-Mobil and Chevron have bought back tens of Billions of dollars in stock in the last couple of years and at their current rate will have retrieved them all right around 2020. Corporate stock buyback isn't unheard of but it isn't generally a sign that everything's A-OK. In this case, it is likely that these companies are attempting to save their investors (at least the big ones) and themselves grief. In a Peak Oil crisis they're probably going to be seized by governments and cease to exist as a business. Even if they aren't their stock prices will be beyond volatile (granted its not going to make much difference to the general economic collapse).

Peak Oil Conspiracies
Well I already gave the George Bush - 9/11 conspiracy but there are more.

Remember the Homeland Security secret prisons being built around the country? Well now they are for illegals who will flee a collapsing Mexico when their oil well run dry in the near future. You know because anyone can tell present Mexico from a future collapsing Mexico. Maybe the conspiracists will read my blog and see that they are for desperate Americans stealing the remaining food and killing each other for scraps! BTW, Glenn Beck researched this conspiracy months ago and concluded that there is no evidence of DHS prisons being built at any of the 'known' locations.

Prisonplanet.com, a leftist-wacko site, says that Peak Oil itself is a conspiracy built to create artificial scarcity and drive up the price (and profits) of oil. Yet Exxon-Mobil has spent millions in advertising dollars denying that Peak Oil even exists. Oddly enough, the left usually wants oil to rise in price in order to force people to consume less 'for the environment'. This may be a case of the left hand not knowing what the lefter hand is doing...

That's all I can really handle telling you because spending too much time in that shady region of the Internet will make a person go a little bit insane. If you want to research it more on your own I recommend small doses so you don't get sidetracked by Peak Oil and Atlantis (OK, I made that up), Exobiology (nope, that's a real topic), and other wonders of the conspiracy universe.

Peak Oil and Revelation
I'm not going to get too preachy here. My fertile brain makes large intuitive leaps sometimes based on little information but the more I study and ponder worst case Peak Oil scenarios the more my brain kept associating it with parts of the last book of the Bible.

Revelation 6:2-8 describes what are known as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse but that caught my eye is verse 6: "A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny...". A penny was translated from a denarius which at the time of the prophet John was roughly a day's wages for most laborers. In other words, you will work a full day merely to feed yourself. That could easily happen in a neo-feudal structure set up during and after a Peak Oil crisis.

Furthermore, the second horseman is given the power to "take peace from the earth and make men slay one another". In any society his red color and description describe war. A Peak Oil crisis will definitely 'take peace from the earth' as nations fight it out over oil. The Fourth and most famous horseman, the Pale Rider, is given power over 1/4 of the earth to kill by sword (rioting/looting), famine and plague, and wild beasts of the earth. All of these will be rampant in the severe oil crisis. As society and industry break down, food will be scarce and famine will set in. Nutrition deficiency causes its own diseases but also makes people less able to fight off other diseases. One reason bird flu and swine flu didn't actually become a 'pandemic' is because people in America are well fed and could fight off the diseases. As people abandon cities in search of food many will not be able to cope with the world around them. So many are taught that bears, cougars, and wolves are playful and friendly. Not knowing how to deal with these predators and others and already weakened by lack of food they will be easy prey for wild animals.

Though I'm not inclined to believe this is how it will happen, Revelation 8:10-11 is the third trumpet judgment that poisons 1/3 of the earth's waters (I believe it will be a supernatural event but here is a non-supernatural possibility). In a Peak Oil crisis abandoned chemical facilities, idle waste treatment plants and riverside buildings will begin to decay and release toxic substances into rivers and lakes making them poison to drink. Desperate people will drink them anyway and many will sicken or die.

The Middle East figures prominently in the book of Revelation. A military coalition of Russia and Arabs will attack Israel (I believe because they will discover a vast oil field under Israeli land). Another coalition led by China will also march in as will the believed Antichrist's European coalition. Let's face it, the only two reasons to have a war in the Middle East are because of oil or you hate Israel (some will go to do both at once).

There are many other examples of imagery from the Bible's relevatory passages that match up with worst case Peak Oil scenarios but I promised not to be too preachy. You know where to look them up if you want to judge for yourself.

The Probability/Risk Factor
The History Channel and Discovery Network are fond of Disaster shows that scare us into thinking the end of the world could occur at any moment when most of the events they depict have a very small chance of happening in our lifetime. To heighten fears of the less capable minds these programs highlight the Risk portion of the equation out of context to its probability. For example, the probability of a space object big enough to cause an extinction level event is very low but the risk is extremely high if one does. On the other end, an event like your computer crashing at some point is very high but, while it might cause some inconvenience and work to reload your MP3s and favorite programs, it has a pretty low risk to your economic and life future.

A Peak Oil event in the next 15 years, whether programmed by evil Cabals or naturally occurring, has a very high to extremely likely probability. In addition it also has a very high to extreme risk to our economic futures, individual rights, and life and limb.

What's an Oil Junkie to do?
As one of the world's big oil junkies I am concerned about what Peak Oil could mean for me. As a natural cynic I tend to expect the worst case scenario but equally as a Fundamentalist Christian I believe that I will only see the beginnings of the true suffering people will experience as Peak Oil disrupts civilization and the world looks to the man who will become the Antichrist for relief.

But assuming that the Antichrist doesn't show up right away, here's what I think should be done.

1. First and foremost is to prepare yourself psychologically to cope with it. Let's face it most of us don't want to even consider scenarios like this. If 9/11 taught us nothing else, it did reveal that many people aren't prepared to cope with disasters on any scale. Many people can't keep it together if the barista gets their coffee order wrong let alone the end of the petroleum using world. About eighty percent of the people will be stuck in cognitive dissonance or frozen in terror. Only ten percent of us will keep our wits about us enough to act and react in the appropriate manner. The more prepared you are psychologically the more likely you will be in that ten percent.

2. To the best of your resource ability stockpile food, medical supplies, weapons, and ammunition. The first directive will be to survive. Act like a Mormon and build up at least a year's supply of food for each member of your family (buy vegetable seeds and start gardening now if you can so you learn what does and doesn't work before you have to to have it). Water is hard to store long term so you may want to come up with a rainwater catch and storage system along with ways to purify water. You'll have to choose the weapons that are best for you. The nice thing about a shotgun is you don't have to be as accurate as with other weapons. Just fill the air with lead in the general direction of the target.

3. Harp on your elected officials about Peak Oil. They need to acknowledge it as an actual problem and make preparation to help us smooth out the peaks and valleys. We all know they won't but at least we tried to get them to do their Constitutional directive to protect the nation.

4. Set up a network with friends and family. The more people you can rely on for mutual defense and resource sharing the less likely you are to be a victim. Keep in mind that only while everyone has enough food, water, and shelter are these networks likely to survive. If people begin to get too desperate even husband/wife, parent/child bonds will be tested to their limits.

5. If you have to stay in a city or large town you need to decide if/how you can make your home defensible and livable during a Peak Oil crisis. Otherwise I recommend having someone in your network that is rural - and the more rural the better. The further from other people you are the better. You will probably want to be at least 100 miles from a major city and between 50-100 miles from medium sized cities like Boise or Spokane. In a worst case scenario every mile between you and a population center will probably exponentially reduce your chances of having to face a kill or be killed situation.

6. Be aware of what is going on. You aren't going to learn much through the MSM news or even Fox News (unless knowing about the Kardashians or Jersey Shore informs you about world problems) but if you are willing to look beyond the headlines you can find out what really going on. Some of it may lead you into the shadier parts of the Internet where the conspiracists roam but like the Men in Black movies, sometimes the real news is in the Enquirer and not the newspaper. You'll have to use your own judgment to weigh everything you read and see just like you'll have to weigh whether or not this series of blogs is believable or not - but you should have been doing that all along anyway.

Things could always get better. There's a chance we could pull out of this recession and go on for another 10 or 20 years just like we were beforehand. I don't know how though. The oil companies and governments are quietly preparing for Peak Oil but hiding it from us for reasons that I haven't fully deciphered yet. I refuse to be a victim of dependent on others for my survival and do everything I can to prepare for the worst. It isn't about panic, rather it is a reasoned course of action based on the probability of the event in question. Right now we have time to plan. I was never a Boy Scout but anyone can see that their motto applies to each and every one of us: Be Prepared.