Since this week was pretty heavy as far as posts go, let's try to catch up on some not so serious takes on recent events.
Poor President Tom. He's in quite a pickle as the demonstrations against him and his fake election increase in frequency and violence. Even his 'shocking' announcement that Iran is now a nuclear nation caused barely a ripple in the talking head world. The only ones who don't seem to know that we all know that Iran is working on nuclear weapons is the Iranians. Of course we have to redefine the term 'nuclear nation' to allow Iran into the club. They have refined uranium to a full on 20% purity (80% purity is needed to make an actual nuke-ular bomb). So basically they've refined it to a point where it isn't dangerous to anyone but...themselves.
America's favorite playboy, former President Clinton went to the hospital for chest pains and ultimately a couple of stents to open up arterial blockages. I'm sure that as he was drifting into the sweet oblivion of anesthesia visions of all the nurses and nurse's aides that he would be molesting during his recovery danced before his eyes. How shocking and horrible it must have been to wake up in the recovery room to see Hilary's sour puss scowling down at him! It's a wonder that didn't kill him on the spot! :)
Billboards are popping up around the country featuring a smiling President George W Bush and the caption "Do you miss me yet?" on them. While I understand the sentiment I'm not sure things would be much better off with him still around. Remember he claimed that we had to abandon free market principles to fix the free market and proceeded to do just that. The only difference with Obama is that he plans on abandoning free market principles to destroy the free market. Perhaps the anonymous business people who posted those billboards should spend a little more money and paper over W with a picture of Reagan. I think most of the nation really does miss him.
The Winter Olympics start in Vancouver tonight with the ever delightful, cult-like, opening ceremony and march of nations. On the plus side this may be the first Winter Olympiad where the spectators can wear shorts to the events! The IOC will inevitably draw the wrong conclusions about this Olympiad and chalk it up to 'global warming' rather than the glorious El Nino that comes along every few years to make winter in the Pacific Northwest charming rather than onerous. Don't expect another Winter Olympics anywhere coastal for the next few cycles. I will be happy though to join a committee for Katmandu or Yellowknife 2018! Call me.
Have a great weekend.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Thursday, February 11, 2010
The Coming Oil Crisis Part III (and Final Part)
Preparing for a Peak Oil Crisis?
You may have guessed from my blogs that I hate not knowing what is going on. I am an information Hoover gobbling it up as fast as I can. As GI Joe says, knowing is half the battle; and like Admiral Kirk, I don't like to lose. That all adds up to a lot of unrelated items in the news suddenly making sense when I apply them in context to Peak Oil. Some people out there are preparing for Peak Oil and they are among the rich and powerful.
Back in early November of 2009, probably the low point of the recession, the MSM and Fox News all blandly reported that the alleged 'Wizard of Wall Street' Warren Buffett bought the BNSF Railroad. (That's Burlington Northern Santa Fe for the non Railroad literate.) They all focused on the price he paid: $26.3 Billion. As I was home alone at the time, I asked Stitch and Disney Cruiseline Chip (the stuffed animals that sit near my chair) why he would buy into a dying industry like the railroad. Well now it makes sense. CSX railroad advertises that it can haul a ton of goods 400+ miles on a gallon of diesel and I imagine BNSF is no different. Buffett is hedging on a major oil shock or Peak Oil crisis. Trucking will quickly be a thing of the past because of fuel prices and the only reasonably cost effective mass transport will be rail.
In my research I also found a little tidbit that ultimately made my decision to write about the subject. While the great environmentalist Algore's mansion is sucking down resources like a black hole feeding off a nearby star, that 'evil oil man' and former president George W Bush has quietly fitted his Crawford, TX ranch with alternate energy sources and taken it off the grid. You think he knows something we don't?
President Bush is a believer in Peak Oil and who better to judge the likelihood of that event than a former oil man? Some conspiracists believe that Peak Oil was part of his reasoning for invading Iraq. Being half a world away in a Peak Oil crisis would put the US at a severe disadvantage against China, Russia, and the EU who all have land access to the Middle East. Establishing a permanent US military presence there would be a vital strategic advantage during a Peak Oil crisis. I suppose its plausible but the same people also believe that is why Bush engineered the 9/11 disaster so that's going to need an entire salt lick of skepticism with it for me. I will say though that if he did use 9/11 to establish the US there for Peak Oil reasons and they come to pass...we might want to find another hill in South Dakota to carve his face on; assuming we manage to hold on to the remaining oil.
President Bush also expanded the Strategic Oil Reserve and filled it to capacity (it was usually at about 90% capacity). The Reserve will keep some vital services going but it is mainly to keep the military going in a crisis.
Since 1998 there have been a number of Oil company mergers. This could be a sign of Peak Oil. Those who cannot compete are absorbed by those who can. In 1998-99 BP, Amoco, and Arco merged. Exxon and Mobil merged in 1999. Then Chevron-Texaco who eventually gobbled up ailing Unocal. Then came Phillips and Conoco. Royal Dutch and Shell put it together in 2005. BP came within a hair's breadth of merging with Royal Dutch-Shell to form a mega-oil company recently as well. This isn't normal merging to create a monopoly as the left likes to believe. This is merging in order to survive. I suspect that it is because they see Peak Oil coming or have facts that show its already here and the wars in the boardrooms are warnings of wars in the oil fields.
The oil companies are also buying back their stock at what should be an alarming rate (but isn't even noted by the MSM). Exxon-Mobil and Chevron have bought back tens of Billions of dollars in stock in the last couple of years and at their current rate will have retrieved them all right around 2020. Corporate stock buyback isn't unheard of but it isn't generally a sign that everything's A-OK. In this case, it is likely that these companies are attempting to save their investors (at least the big ones) and themselves grief. In a Peak Oil crisis they're probably going to be seized by governments and cease to exist as a business. Even if they aren't their stock prices will be beyond volatile (granted its not going to make much difference to the general economic collapse).
Peak Oil Conspiracies
Well I already gave the George Bush - 9/11 conspiracy but there are more.
Remember the Homeland Security secret prisons being built around the country? Well now they are for illegals who will flee a collapsing Mexico when their oil well run dry in the near future. You know because anyone can tell present Mexico from a future collapsing Mexico. Maybe the conspiracists will read my blog and see that they are for desperate Americans stealing the remaining food and killing each other for scraps! BTW, Glenn Beck researched this conspiracy months ago and concluded that there is no evidence of DHS prisons being built at any of the 'known' locations.
Prisonplanet.com, a leftist-wacko site, says that Peak Oil itself is a conspiracy built to create artificial scarcity and drive up the price (and profits) of oil. Yet Exxon-Mobil has spent millions in advertising dollars denying that Peak Oil even exists. Oddly enough, the left usually wants oil to rise in price in order to force people to consume less 'for the environment'. This may be a case of the left hand not knowing what the lefter hand is doing...
That's all I can really handle telling you because spending too much time in that shady region of the Internet will make a person go a little bit insane. If you want to research it more on your own I recommend small doses so you don't get sidetracked by Peak Oil and Atlantis (OK, I made that up), Exobiology (nope, that's a real topic), and other wonders of the conspiracy universe.
Peak Oil and Revelation
I'm not going to get too preachy here. My fertile brain makes large intuitive leaps sometimes based on little information but the more I study and ponder worst case Peak Oil scenarios the more my brain kept associating it with parts of the last book of the Bible.
Revelation 6:2-8 describes what are known as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse but that caught my eye is verse 6: "A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny...". A penny was translated from a denarius which at the time of the prophet John was roughly a day's wages for most laborers. In other words, you will work a full day merely to feed yourself. That could easily happen in a neo-feudal structure set up during and after a Peak Oil crisis.
Furthermore, the second horseman is given the power to "take peace from the earth and make men slay one another". In any society his red color and description describe war. A Peak Oil crisis will definitely 'take peace from the earth' as nations fight it out over oil. The Fourth and most famous horseman, the Pale Rider, is given power over 1/4 of the earth to kill by sword (rioting/looting), famine and plague, and wild beasts of the earth. All of these will be rampant in the severe oil crisis. As society and industry break down, food will be scarce and famine will set in. Nutrition deficiency causes its own diseases but also makes people less able to fight off other diseases. One reason bird flu and swine flu didn't actually become a 'pandemic' is because people in America are well fed and could fight off the diseases. As people abandon cities in search of food many will not be able to cope with the world around them. So many are taught that bears, cougars, and wolves are playful and friendly. Not knowing how to deal with these predators and others and already weakened by lack of food they will be easy prey for wild animals.
Though I'm not inclined to believe this is how it will happen, Revelation 8:10-11 is the third trumpet judgment that poisons 1/3 of the earth's waters (I believe it will be a supernatural event but here is a non-supernatural possibility). In a Peak Oil crisis abandoned chemical facilities, idle waste treatment plants and riverside buildings will begin to decay and release toxic substances into rivers and lakes making them poison to drink. Desperate people will drink them anyway and many will sicken or die.
The Middle East figures prominently in the book of Revelation. A military coalition of Russia and Arabs will attack Israel (I believe because they will discover a vast oil field under Israeli land). Another coalition led by China will also march in as will the believed Antichrist's European coalition. Let's face it, the only two reasons to have a war in the Middle East are because of oil or you hate Israel (some will go to do both at once).
There are many other examples of imagery from the Bible's relevatory passages that match up with worst case Peak Oil scenarios but I promised not to be too preachy. You know where to look them up if you want to judge for yourself.
The Probability/Risk Factor
The History Channel and Discovery Network are fond of Disaster shows that scare us into thinking the end of the world could occur at any moment when most of the events they depict have a very small chance of happening in our lifetime. To heighten fears of the less capable minds these programs highlight the Risk portion of the equation out of context to its probability. For example, the probability of a space object big enough to cause an extinction level event is very low but the risk is extremely high if one does. On the other end, an event like your computer crashing at some point is very high but, while it might cause some inconvenience and work to reload your MP3s and favorite programs, it has a pretty low risk to your economic and life future.
A Peak Oil event in the next 15 years, whether programmed by evil Cabals or naturally occurring, has a very high to extremely likely probability. In addition it also has a very high to extreme risk to our economic futures, individual rights, and life and limb.
What's an Oil Junkie to do?
As one of the world's big oil junkies I am concerned about what Peak Oil could mean for me. As a natural cynic I tend to expect the worst case scenario but equally as a Fundamentalist Christian I believe that I will only see the beginnings of the true suffering people will experience as Peak Oil disrupts civilization and the world looks to the man who will become the Antichrist for relief.
But assuming that the Antichrist doesn't show up right away, here's what I think should be done.
1. First and foremost is to prepare yourself psychologically to cope with it. Let's face it most of us don't want to even consider scenarios like this. If 9/11 taught us nothing else, it did reveal that many people aren't prepared to cope with disasters on any scale. Many people can't keep it together if the barista gets their coffee order wrong let alone the end of the petroleum using world. About eighty percent of the people will be stuck in cognitive dissonance or frozen in terror. Only ten percent of us will keep our wits about us enough to act and react in the appropriate manner. The more prepared you are psychologically the more likely you will be in that ten percent.
2. To the best of your resource ability stockpile food, medical supplies, weapons, and ammunition. The first directive will be to survive. Act like a Mormon and build up at least a year's supply of food for each member of your family (buy vegetable seeds and start gardening now if you can so you learn what does and doesn't work before you have to to have it). Water is hard to store long term so you may want to come up with a rainwater catch and storage system along with ways to purify water. You'll have to choose the weapons that are best for you. The nice thing about a shotgun is you don't have to be as accurate as with other weapons. Just fill the air with lead in the general direction of the target.
3. Harp on your elected officials about Peak Oil. They need to acknowledge it as an actual problem and make preparation to help us smooth out the peaks and valleys. We all know they won't but at least we tried to get them to do their Constitutional directive to protect the nation.
4. Set up a network with friends and family. The more people you can rely on for mutual defense and resource sharing the less likely you are to be a victim. Keep in mind that only while everyone has enough food, water, and shelter are these networks likely to survive. If people begin to get too desperate even husband/wife, parent/child bonds will be tested to their limits.
5. If you have to stay in a city or large town you need to decide if/how you can make your home defensible and livable during a Peak Oil crisis. Otherwise I recommend having someone in your network that is rural - and the more rural the better. The further from other people you are the better. You will probably want to be at least 100 miles from a major city and between 50-100 miles from medium sized cities like Boise or Spokane. In a worst case scenario every mile between you and a population center will probably exponentially reduce your chances of having to face a kill or be killed situation.
6. Be aware of what is going on. You aren't going to learn much through the MSM news or even Fox News (unless knowing about the Kardashians or Jersey Shore informs you about world problems) but if you are willing to look beyond the headlines you can find out what really going on. Some of it may lead you into the shadier parts of the Internet where the conspiracists roam but like the Men in Black movies, sometimes the real news is in the Enquirer and not the newspaper. You'll have to use your own judgment to weigh everything you read and see just like you'll have to weigh whether or not this series of blogs is believable or not - but you should have been doing that all along anyway.
Things could always get better. There's a chance we could pull out of this recession and go on for another 10 or 20 years just like we were beforehand. I don't know how though. The oil companies and governments are quietly preparing for Peak Oil but hiding it from us for reasons that I haven't fully deciphered yet. I refuse to be a victim of dependent on others for my survival and do everything I can to prepare for the worst. It isn't about panic, rather it is a reasoned course of action based on the probability of the event in question. Right now we have time to plan. I was never a Boy Scout but anyone can see that their motto applies to each and every one of us: Be Prepared.
You may have guessed from my blogs that I hate not knowing what is going on. I am an information Hoover gobbling it up as fast as I can. As GI Joe says, knowing is half the battle; and like Admiral Kirk, I don't like to lose. That all adds up to a lot of unrelated items in the news suddenly making sense when I apply them in context to Peak Oil. Some people out there are preparing for Peak Oil and they are among the rich and powerful.
Back in early November of 2009, probably the low point of the recession, the MSM and Fox News all blandly reported that the alleged 'Wizard of Wall Street' Warren Buffett bought the BNSF Railroad. (That's Burlington Northern Santa Fe for the non Railroad literate.) They all focused on the price he paid: $26.3 Billion. As I was home alone at the time, I asked Stitch and Disney Cruiseline Chip (the stuffed animals that sit near my chair) why he would buy into a dying industry like the railroad. Well now it makes sense. CSX railroad advertises that it can haul a ton of goods 400+ miles on a gallon of diesel and I imagine BNSF is no different. Buffett is hedging on a major oil shock or Peak Oil crisis. Trucking will quickly be a thing of the past because of fuel prices and the only reasonably cost effective mass transport will be rail.
In my research I also found a little tidbit that ultimately made my decision to write about the subject. While the great environmentalist Algore's mansion is sucking down resources like a black hole feeding off a nearby star, that 'evil oil man' and former president George W Bush has quietly fitted his Crawford, TX ranch with alternate energy sources and taken it off the grid. You think he knows something we don't?
President Bush is a believer in Peak Oil and who better to judge the likelihood of that event than a former oil man? Some conspiracists believe that Peak Oil was part of his reasoning for invading Iraq. Being half a world away in a Peak Oil crisis would put the US at a severe disadvantage against China, Russia, and the EU who all have land access to the Middle East. Establishing a permanent US military presence there would be a vital strategic advantage during a Peak Oil crisis. I suppose its plausible but the same people also believe that is why Bush engineered the 9/11 disaster so that's going to need an entire salt lick of skepticism with it for me. I will say though that if he did use 9/11 to establish the US there for Peak Oil reasons and they come to pass...we might want to find another hill in South Dakota to carve his face on; assuming we manage to hold on to the remaining oil.
President Bush also expanded the Strategic Oil Reserve and filled it to capacity (it was usually at about 90% capacity). The Reserve will keep some vital services going but it is mainly to keep the military going in a crisis.
Since 1998 there have been a number of Oil company mergers. This could be a sign of Peak Oil. Those who cannot compete are absorbed by those who can. In 1998-99 BP, Amoco, and Arco merged. Exxon and Mobil merged in 1999. Then Chevron-Texaco who eventually gobbled up ailing Unocal. Then came Phillips and Conoco. Royal Dutch and Shell put it together in 2005. BP came within a hair's breadth of merging with Royal Dutch-Shell to form a mega-oil company recently as well. This isn't normal merging to create a monopoly as the left likes to believe. This is merging in order to survive. I suspect that it is because they see Peak Oil coming or have facts that show its already here and the wars in the boardrooms are warnings of wars in the oil fields.
The oil companies are also buying back their stock at what should be an alarming rate (but isn't even noted by the MSM). Exxon-Mobil and Chevron have bought back tens of Billions of dollars in stock in the last couple of years and at their current rate will have retrieved them all right around 2020. Corporate stock buyback isn't unheard of but it isn't generally a sign that everything's A-OK. In this case, it is likely that these companies are attempting to save their investors (at least the big ones) and themselves grief. In a Peak Oil crisis they're probably going to be seized by governments and cease to exist as a business. Even if they aren't their stock prices will be beyond volatile (granted its not going to make much difference to the general economic collapse).
Peak Oil Conspiracies
Well I already gave the George Bush - 9/11 conspiracy but there are more.
Remember the Homeland Security secret prisons being built around the country? Well now they are for illegals who will flee a collapsing Mexico when their oil well run dry in the near future. You know because anyone can tell present Mexico from a future collapsing Mexico. Maybe the conspiracists will read my blog and see that they are for desperate Americans stealing the remaining food and killing each other for scraps! BTW, Glenn Beck researched this conspiracy months ago and concluded that there is no evidence of DHS prisons being built at any of the 'known' locations.
Prisonplanet.com, a leftist-wacko site, says that Peak Oil itself is a conspiracy built to create artificial scarcity and drive up the price (and profits) of oil. Yet Exxon-Mobil has spent millions in advertising dollars denying that Peak Oil even exists. Oddly enough, the left usually wants oil to rise in price in order to force people to consume less 'for the environment'. This may be a case of the left hand not knowing what the lefter hand is doing...
That's all I can really handle telling you because spending too much time in that shady region of the Internet will make a person go a little bit insane. If you want to research it more on your own I recommend small doses so you don't get sidetracked by Peak Oil and Atlantis (OK, I made that up), Exobiology (nope, that's a real topic), and other wonders of the conspiracy universe.
Peak Oil and Revelation
I'm not going to get too preachy here. My fertile brain makes large intuitive leaps sometimes based on little information but the more I study and ponder worst case Peak Oil scenarios the more my brain kept associating it with parts of the last book of the Bible.
Revelation 6:2-8 describes what are known as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse but that caught my eye is verse 6: "A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny...". A penny was translated from a denarius which at the time of the prophet John was roughly a day's wages for most laborers. In other words, you will work a full day merely to feed yourself. That could easily happen in a neo-feudal structure set up during and after a Peak Oil crisis.
Furthermore, the second horseman is given the power to "take peace from the earth and make men slay one another". In any society his red color and description describe war. A Peak Oil crisis will definitely 'take peace from the earth' as nations fight it out over oil. The Fourth and most famous horseman, the Pale Rider, is given power over 1/4 of the earth to kill by sword (rioting/looting), famine and plague, and wild beasts of the earth. All of these will be rampant in the severe oil crisis. As society and industry break down, food will be scarce and famine will set in. Nutrition deficiency causes its own diseases but also makes people less able to fight off other diseases. One reason bird flu and swine flu didn't actually become a 'pandemic' is because people in America are well fed and could fight off the diseases. As people abandon cities in search of food many will not be able to cope with the world around them. So many are taught that bears, cougars, and wolves are playful and friendly. Not knowing how to deal with these predators and others and already weakened by lack of food they will be easy prey for wild animals.
Though I'm not inclined to believe this is how it will happen, Revelation 8:10-11 is the third trumpet judgment that poisons 1/3 of the earth's waters (I believe it will be a supernatural event but here is a non-supernatural possibility). In a Peak Oil crisis abandoned chemical facilities, idle waste treatment plants and riverside buildings will begin to decay and release toxic substances into rivers and lakes making them poison to drink. Desperate people will drink them anyway and many will sicken or die.
The Middle East figures prominently in the book of Revelation. A military coalition of Russia and Arabs will attack Israel (I believe because they will discover a vast oil field under Israeli land). Another coalition led by China will also march in as will the believed Antichrist's European coalition. Let's face it, the only two reasons to have a war in the Middle East are because of oil or you hate Israel (some will go to do both at once).
There are many other examples of imagery from the Bible's relevatory passages that match up with worst case Peak Oil scenarios but I promised not to be too preachy. You know where to look them up if you want to judge for yourself.
The Probability/Risk Factor
The History Channel and Discovery Network are fond of Disaster shows that scare us into thinking the end of the world could occur at any moment when most of the events they depict have a very small chance of happening in our lifetime. To heighten fears of the less capable minds these programs highlight the Risk portion of the equation out of context to its probability. For example, the probability of a space object big enough to cause an extinction level event is very low but the risk is extremely high if one does. On the other end, an event like your computer crashing at some point is very high but, while it might cause some inconvenience and work to reload your MP3s and favorite programs, it has a pretty low risk to your economic and life future.
A Peak Oil event in the next 15 years, whether programmed by evil Cabals or naturally occurring, has a very high to extremely likely probability. In addition it also has a very high to extreme risk to our economic futures, individual rights, and life and limb.
What's an Oil Junkie to do?
As one of the world's big oil junkies I am concerned about what Peak Oil could mean for me. As a natural cynic I tend to expect the worst case scenario but equally as a Fundamentalist Christian I believe that I will only see the beginnings of the true suffering people will experience as Peak Oil disrupts civilization and the world looks to the man who will become the Antichrist for relief.
But assuming that the Antichrist doesn't show up right away, here's what I think should be done.
1. First and foremost is to prepare yourself psychologically to cope with it. Let's face it most of us don't want to even consider scenarios like this. If 9/11 taught us nothing else, it did reveal that many people aren't prepared to cope with disasters on any scale. Many people can't keep it together if the barista gets their coffee order wrong let alone the end of the petroleum using world. About eighty percent of the people will be stuck in cognitive dissonance or frozen in terror. Only ten percent of us will keep our wits about us enough to act and react in the appropriate manner. The more prepared you are psychologically the more likely you will be in that ten percent.
2. To the best of your resource ability stockpile food, medical supplies, weapons, and ammunition. The first directive will be to survive. Act like a Mormon and build up at least a year's supply of food for each member of your family (buy vegetable seeds and start gardening now if you can so you learn what does and doesn't work before you have to to have it). Water is hard to store long term so you may want to come up with a rainwater catch and storage system along with ways to purify water. You'll have to choose the weapons that are best for you. The nice thing about a shotgun is you don't have to be as accurate as with other weapons. Just fill the air with lead in the general direction of the target.
3. Harp on your elected officials about Peak Oil. They need to acknowledge it as an actual problem and make preparation to help us smooth out the peaks and valleys. We all know they won't but at least we tried to get them to do their Constitutional directive to protect the nation.
4. Set up a network with friends and family. The more people you can rely on for mutual defense and resource sharing the less likely you are to be a victim. Keep in mind that only while everyone has enough food, water, and shelter are these networks likely to survive. If people begin to get too desperate even husband/wife, parent/child bonds will be tested to their limits.
5. If you have to stay in a city or large town you need to decide if/how you can make your home defensible and livable during a Peak Oil crisis. Otherwise I recommend having someone in your network that is rural - and the more rural the better. The further from other people you are the better. You will probably want to be at least 100 miles from a major city and between 50-100 miles from medium sized cities like Boise or Spokane. In a worst case scenario every mile between you and a population center will probably exponentially reduce your chances of having to face a kill or be killed situation.
6. Be aware of what is going on. You aren't going to learn much through the MSM news or even Fox News (unless knowing about the Kardashians or Jersey Shore informs you about world problems) but if you are willing to look beyond the headlines you can find out what really going on. Some of it may lead you into the shadier parts of the Internet where the conspiracists roam but like the Men in Black movies, sometimes the real news is in the Enquirer and not the newspaper. You'll have to use your own judgment to weigh everything you read and see just like you'll have to weigh whether or not this series of blogs is believable or not - but you should have been doing that all along anyway.
Things could always get better. There's a chance we could pull out of this recession and go on for another 10 or 20 years just like we were beforehand. I don't know how though. The oil companies and governments are quietly preparing for Peak Oil but hiding it from us for reasons that I haven't fully deciphered yet. I refuse to be a victim of dependent on others for my survival and do everything I can to prepare for the worst. It isn't about panic, rather it is a reasoned course of action based on the probability of the event in question. Right now we have time to plan. I was never a Boy Scout but anyone can see that their motto applies to each and every one of us: Be Prepared.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
The Coming Oil Crisis Part II
Oil Shocks and the Economy
A Peak Oil crisis could occur virtually at any time and it will likely begin with an oil shock. Some think that we've already had our first one in the oil shock of 2008. For various reasons (war, terrorism, natural disaster) demand will outpace production. In the case of 2008 it was simply that world demand outpaced production as the US and Europe saw India and China began serious economic growth in oil based areas. Whatever the reason, it will drive up the price of oil which, as we have all seen, will cause the price of gasoline to jump. When it happened in 2008 we had just come off six of the most prosperous years in American history (in spite of what the Hobama tells us) and had several ways to get through it without too much disruption of our routine.
Historically an oil shock is followed by a recession and the worse the oil shock, the worse the recession. The first major oil shock came in the 1970s with the Yom Kippur War. War naturally disrupts trade but OPEC wanted to punish us for supporting Israel during the war and cut production. President Nixon compounded the problem by instituting price controls rather than allowing the price of gasoline to rise. Oil companies could no longer afford to refine gasoline and sell it at the control price which resulted in long lines at empty gas stations. OPECs 'embargo' quickly broke but the damage had been done and the US entered a deep recession. Actions by Nixon, Ford, and Carter (all Progressives to some degree by the way) worsened the recession and the US did not fully recover until 1984.
The next major oil shock took place in the 1990s when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Though prices then never reached close to what we pay daily now, the modest recession that followed Gulf War I was bad enough to get George HW Bush unelected.
Anatomy of a Peak Oil Crisis
As I stated before some of my sources believe that the 2008 oil shock is the first step in the ultimate Peak Oil crisis. Even though the government and MSM are proclaiming the recession over, most of us know that it isn't and a lengthy, deepening recession would only be the precursor to a Peak Oil crisis.
I could probably pontificate to near eternity on the possible scenarios that will arise after a Peak Oil crisis but will, for sake of brevity, limit myself to what I see as the best case, the middle case, and worst case.
Best case is simple. Some person or group discovers an alternate fuel source that is cheap to produce, abundant, and more efficient than oil. Oh and it has to be easy to convert from oil to the new fuel. That is a tall order considering that a single gallon of gasoline contains the energy equivalent of 200-500 hours of human labor depending on the activity. Should this happen, the only real dislocation will be the sudden end to the oil companies and the oil sheiks money stream. The sheiks will likely throw themselves fruitlessly at Israel and survivors will go back to 7th century Arab nomad culture and good riddance to them thank you very much.
The middle case is more complex. It assumes that the oil shock will lead to a steady but gradual decline in production. Industries will collapse and there will be pockets of high unemployment, hunger, and rioting. Famine will be an issue for those who can't cope and a period of general law through the gun will precede governments becoming more authoritarian in nature to curb the most serious problems. In the end the Middle Class will be all but gone as most people are forced to farm even the most marginally arable land. Since the US produces 60% of the world's food famine and disease will wipe out most of the under-developed world and nations with the resources to do so will fight over arable land in Africa and Asia to move their too large to sustain populations into. The least fortunate and least able to adjust everywhere will die off (to the delight of remaining academic leftists and enviro-wackos that have time to care). Other than militaries and the rich, modern convenience and travel will be little more than a memory. In the end most people will live a sort of odd mixture of 19th and 21st century life as the hour or two a day of electricity allows them a window to surf the net or listen to the radio.
Then there is the Apocalyptic version of the oil shock. This assumes that one day we will wake up and for whatever reason the oil spigot has gone virtually dry. The first few days would, like other disasters, be kind of surreal. Many neighbors would band together in a futile effort to 'get through it' and there would be much discussion of it over coffee and quiet friendly potlucks. But after a few days, the water might stop working, heating oil runs low or the gas line stops running, the food in the cupboards begins to run out and the stores are largely empty from hoarders or pockets of looting. The friendly neighbors start disbanding as they begin to look out for themselves and their families. Suddenly everyone is competing for resources that don't exist and societal collapse is imminent.
In addition, entire industries collapse overnight. People are out of jobs and money is worthless. Even assets like gold aren't going to be useful since no one will trade food for it. Your home is now a liability instead of an asset as you have to defend it against scavengers and bands looking for non-existent food. If you have petrol in your vehicle(s) they also become sources of contention. Civil rights are gone since hungry people don't care about free speech. Overwhelmed governments declare martial law but haven't the resources to keep the peace everywhere and many people die simply because they exist and are in someone else's way. Some will turn to cannibalism where food shortages are the most severe. Others will try to escape cities and towns to poach or, more likely, attempt steal from and kill rural inhabitants who tend to have modest food stores and means of defense. Famine and disease will become chronic. The modern world will cease to exist with horrors far beyond what the Black Death was like in Europe. Those who emerge from it will likely face a life that resembles the worst of the Dark Ages.
Okay, well that was pretty grim. I'm going to wrap this up in my next post. I believe there are some people preparing for the bad scenarios. Governments don't appear to be doing anything though there are some conspiracies out there that suggest they are - and none of it helpful. Then I will tell you what I think we should do to prepare for it.
A Peak Oil crisis could occur virtually at any time and it will likely begin with an oil shock. Some think that we've already had our first one in the oil shock of 2008. For various reasons (war, terrorism, natural disaster) demand will outpace production. In the case of 2008 it was simply that world demand outpaced production as the US and Europe saw India and China began serious economic growth in oil based areas. Whatever the reason, it will drive up the price of oil which, as we have all seen, will cause the price of gasoline to jump. When it happened in 2008 we had just come off six of the most prosperous years in American history (in spite of what the Hobama tells us) and had several ways to get through it without too much disruption of our routine.
Historically an oil shock is followed by a recession and the worse the oil shock, the worse the recession. The first major oil shock came in the 1970s with the Yom Kippur War. War naturally disrupts trade but OPEC wanted to punish us for supporting Israel during the war and cut production. President Nixon compounded the problem by instituting price controls rather than allowing the price of gasoline to rise. Oil companies could no longer afford to refine gasoline and sell it at the control price which resulted in long lines at empty gas stations. OPECs 'embargo' quickly broke but the damage had been done and the US entered a deep recession. Actions by Nixon, Ford, and Carter (all Progressives to some degree by the way) worsened the recession and the US did not fully recover until 1984.
The next major oil shock took place in the 1990s when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait. Though prices then never reached close to what we pay daily now, the modest recession that followed Gulf War I was bad enough to get George HW Bush unelected.
Anatomy of a Peak Oil Crisis
As I stated before some of my sources believe that the 2008 oil shock is the first step in the ultimate Peak Oil crisis. Even though the government and MSM are proclaiming the recession over, most of us know that it isn't and a lengthy, deepening recession would only be the precursor to a Peak Oil crisis.
I could probably pontificate to near eternity on the possible scenarios that will arise after a Peak Oil crisis but will, for sake of brevity, limit myself to what I see as the best case, the middle case, and worst case.
Best case is simple. Some person or group discovers an alternate fuel source that is cheap to produce, abundant, and more efficient than oil. Oh and it has to be easy to convert from oil to the new fuel. That is a tall order considering that a single gallon of gasoline contains the energy equivalent of 200-500 hours of human labor depending on the activity. Should this happen, the only real dislocation will be the sudden end to the oil companies and the oil sheiks money stream. The sheiks will likely throw themselves fruitlessly at Israel and survivors will go back to 7th century Arab nomad culture and good riddance to them thank you very much.
The middle case is more complex. It assumes that the oil shock will lead to a steady but gradual decline in production. Industries will collapse and there will be pockets of high unemployment, hunger, and rioting. Famine will be an issue for those who can't cope and a period of general law through the gun will precede governments becoming more authoritarian in nature to curb the most serious problems. In the end the Middle Class will be all but gone as most people are forced to farm even the most marginally arable land. Since the US produces 60% of the world's food famine and disease will wipe out most of the under-developed world and nations with the resources to do so will fight over arable land in Africa and Asia to move their too large to sustain populations into. The least fortunate and least able to adjust everywhere will die off (to the delight of remaining academic leftists and enviro-wackos that have time to care). Other than militaries and the rich, modern convenience and travel will be little more than a memory. In the end most people will live a sort of odd mixture of 19th and 21st century life as the hour or two a day of electricity allows them a window to surf the net or listen to the radio.
Then there is the Apocalyptic version of the oil shock. This assumes that one day we will wake up and for whatever reason the oil spigot has gone virtually dry. The first few days would, like other disasters, be kind of surreal. Many neighbors would band together in a futile effort to 'get through it' and there would be much discussion of it over coffee and quiet friendly potlucks. But after a few days, the water might stop working, heating oil runs low or the gas line stops running, the food in the cupboards begins to run out and the stores are largely empty from hoarders or pockets of looting. The friendly neighbors start disbanding as they begin to look out for themselves and their families. Suddenly everyone is competing for resources that don't exist and societal collapse is imminent.
In addition, entire industries collapse overnight. People are out of jobs and money is worthless. Even assets like gold aren't going to be useful since no one will trade food for it. Your home is now a liability instead of an asset as you have to defend it against scavengers and bands looking for non-existent food. If you have petrol in your vehicle(s) they also become sources of contention. Civil rights are gone since hungry people don't care about free speech. Overwhelmed governments declare martial law but haven't the resources to keep the peace everywhere and many people die simply because they exist and are in someone else's way. Some will turn to cannibalism where food shortages are the most severe. Others will try to escape cities and towns to poach or, more likely, attempt steal from and kill rural inhabitants who tend to have modest food stores and means of defense. Famine and disease will become chronic. The modern world will cease to exist with horrors far beyond what the Black Death was like in Europe. Those who emerge from it will likely face a life that resembles the worst of the Dark Ages.
Okay, well that was pretty grim. I'm going to wrap this up in my next post. I believe there are some people preparing for the bad scenarios. Governments don't appear to be doing anything though there are some conspiracies out there that suggest they are - and none of it helpful. Then I will tell you what I think we should do to prepare for it.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Doom, Gloom, and the iPad?
A couple of non-sequiters before I hit you with the depressing stuff:
I heard this on Glenn Beck the other day and it took me a while to verify independently. As everyone but the average contestant on "Are you Smarter than a Fifth Grader?" knows Iran used to be called Persia. The people of Persia have long called themselves both Persian and 'eran' or Iran which is the Farsi word for Aryan. Yes, that's the same Aryan that Hitler and the Nazis believed themselves. The Nazis were the ones who encouraged the change and helped nurture the anti-Semitic leanings of Iran that menace us in the form of 'President' Tom today.
Speaking of evil cults; Apple's introduction of the iPad, aside from making the teenager inside me giggle at the name and want to abuse it in connection with feminine hygiene products, made me realize that Apple ownership has become less about the product and more like a cult. Ardent initiates gathered around Steve Jobs to worship at the release of the iPhone and the iPad as if called to prayer. Apple product owners have a nearly religious affiliation with the high priced products (the iPad is essentially Apple's answer to the netbook and is probably going to start at about 3-4X the cost) that don't play well with others. I can understand the desire to appear as part of the counter-culture (since I am a counter-culture unto myself) but latching on to a product like the Apple or Subaru as a symbol of that urge demonstrates a general shallowness rather than genuine like of the product or belief.
THE END IS NEAR
Okay, so that might be a little too dramatic. Those of you who regularly read my diatribes or have them read to you by a co-worker know that I'm not given over to panic. Yes, I rail against injustice and corruption with Apocalyptic fervor but I never panic.
Several weeks ago my attention was returned to something I remember hearing as far back as my days at the University back in 1990. I floated the notion by Mrs. C and brother RC only to be met with monumental indifference. They can hardly be blamed since what I am speaking about has been largely relegated to academic conferences that would put an insomniac in a coma.
I am talking about Peak Oil...yes, yes I can hear your indifference through the Internet. Peak Oil isn't a corporation although it would be a good name. As I said in my last post, a Peak Oil crisis has the potential to cause conditions like those written about in the book of Revelation. It is a forgone certainty that a Peak Oil crisis would trigger anything from a large regional war to a full out world war. But before we get there, I should explain what Peak Oil is exactly.
Peak Oil is the very real fact that at some point the world will reach its maximum oil production ability. Estimates of where this point will be range from it having happened in the 1990s to as far out as 2030. The mid range for it happening tend to fall right around the 2010-2015 time period.
The sources I've researched tend to show that Peak Oil will occur at about the same time we have used half of the world's easily accessible/cheaply recoverable oil reserves but I don't believe the two events are necessarily related. In all likelihood oil production did/is/will expand until 60-75% of world reserves have been used and, like shlucking on a milkshake, we have to work harder to get the rest of it out of the glass. One thing is certain though. We will use the second half of the oil far faster than we used the first half.
Peak Oil itself will, for most of the world, be a non-event. No one is going to be standing over an oil rig to bemoan the fact that we have pulled X% of the oil out of the ground and only the bearded weirdos wearing sandwich boards will be trumpeting the end of the world. Peak Oil will not be a problem for anyone until it reaches a crisis point.
Peak Oil has been all but ignored in the mainstream media and it faces other hurdles working its way into the general psyche of the developed world. Most lay people when confronted with Peak Oil respond that they will accept higher gas prices and travel less but a Peak Oil crisis will cause a lot more disruption to our lives than just that.
Using Oil
How much oil do you think you use in a day? How much do you think oil impacts your life in a day? As Americans we have the highest standards of living in the entire world and those standards require a lot of energy. Following is (at best) a partial list of how oil affects everything we do:
The average American uses just over 1000 gallons of gasoline per year for travel. A barrel of oil produces 20 gallons of gasoline so you use 50 barrels of oil just for travel. That car you are driving required roughly 20 barrels of oil to produce; more than that if you drive a hybrid that uses more exotic metals in the batteries.
The computer you are reading this on used its weight in oil to create.
Producing a one gram microchip uses 630 grams of oil.
Want to telecommute for work? The Internet gobbles huge amounts of oil in order to power the infrastructure that keeps servers cool and electrons surging through the system. It is estimated that right now 10% of the US's power consumption is dedicated to keeping the world wide web up and running. Most of that, especially the further east you go, is created by burning oil and natural gas.
In the US food travels an average of 1500 miles to get to your table. In Canada it travels an average of 5000!
All that food doesn't just happen either. It takes oil to make and power the equipment that allows us to mass produce/harvest food. Imagine how many people it would take just to harvest the Palouse every year without those harvesters. Keep in mind that the US also produces 60% of the world's food.
In addition modern fertilizers are ammonia based and much of that is derived from natural gas.
Everything you use daily is produced using oil. Natural and synthetic fiber clothing; furniture, electronic equipment, books, toilet paper... Everything we touch on a daily basis was likely produced using oil at some point. Even the greenest person can hardly avoid it.
Concrete and asphalt require extensive energy to produce. Asphalt is oil based. One ton of cement requires 45 gallons of oil or 420 pounds of coal to produce.
For those who think there is a panacea in alternative fuels/energy I have bad news. So far all of those sources have oil at their base. Nuclear needs massive amounts of concrete. Wind turbines require a lot of metal - mostly aluminum. Solar cells require more exotic metals and use a lot of oil in their production. It takes almost 18 barrels of oil to get a ton of copper. It takes almost 360 to process a ton of aluminum.
An aluminum plant requires the energy of a city of 175,000 people.
Ethanol is not a replacement. It takes 1.2 barrels of oil to create 1 barrel of ethanol (not including the oil used to grow the corn). Even when you get that, ethanol is only 80% as efficient as oil. Bottom line there is that you get 2/3 of the energy you invested from a barrel of ethanol. That's like spending $1 to make 66 cents. (Makes you think about how the government works.)
The bulk of American houses are heated with oil, natural gas, or electricity created from fossil fuels.
When you tally it all together; virtually every aspect of our lives and economy is based on oil.
Take that with you through the day and as you go through your routine think about what you are doing in relation to how much oil it took for you to do that activity. My next post will continue to look at Peak Oil and how we could be closer to a Peak Oil crisis than you might think.
I heard this on Glenn Beck the other day and it took me a while to verify independently. As everyone but the average contestant on "Are you Smarter than a Fifth Grader?" knows Iran used to be called Persia. The people of Persia have long called themselves both Persian and 'eran' or Iran which is the Farsi word for Aryan. Yes, that's the same Aryan that Hitler and the Nazis believed themselves. The Nazis were the ones who encouraged the change and helped nurture the anti-Semitic leanings of Iran that menace us in the form of 'President' Tom today.
Speaking of evil cults; Apple's introduction of the iPad, aside from making the teenager inside me giggle at the name and want to abuse it in connection with feminine hygiene products, made me realize that Apple ownership has become less about the product and more like a cult. Ardent initiates gathered around Steve Jobs to worship at the release of the iPhone and the iPad as if called to prayer. Apple product owners have a nearly religious affiliation with the high priced products (the iPad is essentially Apple's answer to the netbook and is probably going to start at about 3-4X the cost) that don't play well with others. I can understand the desire to appear as part of the counter-culture (since I am a counter-culture unto myself) but latching on to a product like the Apple or Subaru as a symbol of that urge demonstrates a general shallowness rather than genuine like of the product or belief.
THE END IS NEAR
Okay, so that might be a little too dramatic. Those of you who regularly read my diatribes or have them read to you by a co-worker know that I'm not given over to panic. Yes, I rail against injustice and corruption with Apocalyptic fervor but I never panic.
Several weeks ago my attention was returned to something I remember hearing as far back as my days at the University back in 1990. I floated the notion by Mrs. C and brother RC only to be met with monumental indifference. They can hardly be blamed since what I am speaking about has been largely relegated to academic conferences that would put an insomniac in a coma.
I am talking about Peak Oil...yes, yes I can hear your indifference through the Internet. Peak Oil isn't a corporation although it would be a good name. As I said in my last post, a Peak Oil crisis has the potential to cause conditions like those written about in the book of Revelation. It is a forgone certainty that a Peak Oil crisis would trigger anything from a large regional war to a full out world war. But before we get there, I should explain what Peak Oil is exactly.
Peak Oil is the very real fact that at some point the world will reach its maximum oil production ability. Estimates of where this point will be range from it having happened in the 1990s to as far out as 2030. The mid range for it happening tend to fall right around the 2010-2015 time period.
The sources I've researched tend to show that Peak Oil will occur at about the same time we have used half of the world's easily accessible/cheaply recoverable oil reserves but I don't believe the two events are necessarily related. In all likelihood oil production did/is/will expand until 60-75% of world reserves have been used and, like shlucking on a milkshake, we have to work harder to get the rest of it out of the glass. One thing is certain though. We will use the second half of the oil far faster than we used the first half.
Peak Oil itself will, for most of the world, be a non-event. No one is going to be standing over an oil rig to bemoan the fact that we have pulled X% of the oil out of the ground and only the bearded weirdos wearing sandwich boards will be trumpeting the end of the world. Peak Oil will not be a problem for anyone until it reaches a crisis point.
Peak Oil has been all but ignored in the mainstream media and it faces other hurdles working its way into the general psyche of the developed world. Most lay people when confronted with Peak Oil respond that they will accept higher gas prices and travel less but a Peak Oil crisis will cause a lot more disruption to our lives than just that.
Using Oil
How much oil do you think you use in a day? How much do you think oil impacts your life in a day? As Americans we have the highest standards of living in the entire world and those standards require a lot of energy. Following is (at best) a partial list of how oil affects everything we do:
The average American uses just over 1000 gallons of gasoline per year for travel. A barrel of oil produces 20 gallons of gasoline so you use 50 barrels of oil just for travel. That car you are driving required roughly 20 barrels of oil to produce; more than that if you drive a hybrid that uses more exotic metals in the batteries.
The computer you are reading this on used its weight in oil to create.
Producing a one gram microchip uses 630 grams of oil.
Want to telecommute for work? The Internet gobbles huge amounts of oil in order to power the infrastructure that keeps servers cool and electrons surging through the system. It is estimated that right now 10% of the US's power consumption is dedicated to keeping the world wide web up and running. Most of that, especially the further east you go, is created by burning oil and natural gas.
In the US food travels an average of 1500 miles to get to your table. In Canada it travels an average of 5000!
All that food doesn't just happen either. It takes oil to make and power the equipment that allows us to mass produce/harvest food. Imagine how many people it would take just to harvest the Palouse every year without those harvesters. Keep in mind that the US also produces 60% of the world's food.
In addition modern fertilizers are ammonia based and much of that is derived from natural gas.
Everything you use daily is produced using oil. Natural and synthetic fiber clothing; furniture, electronic equipment, books, toilet paper... Everything we touch on a daily basis was likely produced using oil at some point. Even the greenest person can hardly avoid it.
Concrete and asphalt require extensive energy to produce. Asphalt is oil based. One ton of cement requires 45 gallons of oil or 420 pounds of coal to produce.
For those who think there is a panacea in alternative fuels/energy I have bad news. So far all of those sources have oil at their base. Nuclear needs massive amounts of concrete. Wind turbines require a lot of metal - mostly aluminum. Solar cells require more exotic metals and use a lot of oil in their production. It takes almost 18 barrels of oil to get a ton of copper. It takes almost 360 to process a ton of aluminum.
An aluminum plant requires the energy of a city of 175,000 people.
Ethanol is not a replacement. It takes 1.2 barrels of oil to create 1 barrel of ethanol (not including the oil used to grow the corn). Even when you get that, ethanol is only 80% as efficient as oil. Bottom line there is that you get 2/3 of the energy you invested from a barrel of ethanol. That's like spending $1 to make 66 cents. (Makes you think about how the government works.)
The bulk of American houses are heated with oil, natural gas, or electricity created from fossil fuels.
When you tally it all together; virtually every aspect of our lives and economy is based on oil.
Take that with you through the day and as you go through your routine think about what you are doing in relation to how much oil it took for you to do that activity. My next post will continue to look at Peak Oil and how we could be closer to a Peak Oil crisis than you might think.
Monday, February 8, 2010
Weekend in Review
OK friends, events are moving so fast that its hard to keep up. This weekend marked several significant items of note.
1. Saturday would have been Ronald Reagan's 99th Birthday. Unless you are a Progressive, a Socialist, or Communist; no matter how you felt about some of his policies it is almost impossible to argue with his most famous mantra: the government that governs best governs least. So it is a fitting tribute that:
2. This weekend marked the very first Tea Party convention. I suppose that the Tea Party will use those famous words of Reagan's as one of their rally cries. Tea, in case you don't know, stands for Taxed Enough Already. The name also ties it back to those heady days of the 1770s when American citizens used their God-given right to redress grievances with the symbolic dumping of tea from an East India Company merchantman into Boston Harbor. The modern Republican party was America's first successful alternate party - formed by abolitionists that tore away from the too conciliatory 'Whigs' and eventually eliminated that party altogether. The TEA Party might have a shot at being the second successful alternate party (by that I mean able to challenge for the majority - something the current alternative parties have been unable to do) if they remember that what unites them (and makes them popular with many people) is more important than what divides them.
3. I believe this weekend also marked the 5 Billionth public appearance of Obama since he was sworn in as president. Boy, I thought I was tired of Clinton after the first TWO years!!! I mean seriously. What other president would weasel his way onto television while the whole of America only cares about the Super Bowl? Could we have a few days without having to look at, and WORSE, listen to this jug-eared nonce? So far his only presidential 'success' is to take personal hubris further into the universe than NASA will get after he guts their budget.
4. Largely unnoticed in the media was a 6.4 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Japan. I suppose its not earth-shattering news except that major earthquakes seem to be unusually numerous lately. It is fortunate that so far only one has hit a populated area because even that one has strained the western world's (therefore the world's) disaster response services. A second major disaster while the world is trying to dig Haiti out of the last one could overwhelm private agencies like the Red Cross and add buckets of money to our deficit since America would respond no matter the long term costs to us.
5. Also largely ignored in the US is the economic disaster looming in Europe. Greece is largely insolvent and facing the prospect of being run by EU commissioners - a surefire guarantee that they will never again be solvent. Spain is also on the verge of economic collapse and the London Telegraph has reported that this might cause a "Lehman-like tsunami" of economic collapse throughout the EU. This could decimate the Euro's value and shatter the already fraying political union of Europe. (On the plus side that would temporarily silence talk about replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency.) Facing the very real prospect of being controlled by the French and Germans, many EU nations could arbitrarily opt out of the Union or hold plebiscite elections regarding leaving the union.
Those events, while damaging to the psyche of Europeans, would pale in comparison to the damaging economic ripples that would hit the world. This could deepen and extend the recession (in spite of what is being said by the white house and media we are still in the recession) or raise the spectre of the 'd-word'; worldwide Depression.
And yet all of that pales in comparison to another disaster I think is looming on the horizon. This disaster threatens the western world like nothing we've encountered before. It could trigger wars, destroy the Constitution and personal liberty like nothing we've considered before, and trigger events that will be equated with the horrors of the Biblical book of Revelation. How's that for a warm-fuzzy beginning to the week?
1. Saturday would have been Ronald Reagan's 99th Birthday. Unless you are a Progressive, a Socialist, or Communist; no matter how you felt about some of his policies it is almost impossible to argue with his most famous mantra: the government that governs best governs least. So it is a fitting tribute that:
2. This weekend marked the very first Tea Party convention. I suppose that the Tea Party will use those famous words of Reagan's as one of their rally cries. Tea, in case you don't know, stands for Taxed Enough Already. The name also ties it back to those heady days of the 1770s when American citizens used their God-given right to redress grievances with the symbolic dumping of tea from an East India Company merchantman into Boston Harbor. The modern Republican party was America's first successful alternate party - formed by abolitionists that tore away from the too conciliatory 'Whigs' and eventually eliminated that party altogether. The TEA Party might have a shot at being the second successful alternate party (by that I mean able to challenge for the majority - something the current alternative parties have been unable to do) if they remember that what unites them (and makes them popular with many people) is more important than what divides them.
3. I believe this weekend also marked the 5 Billionth public appearance of Obama since he was sworn in as president. Boy, I thought I was tired of Clinton after the first TWO years!!! I mean seriously. What other president would weasel his way onto television while the whole of America only cares about the Super Bowl? Could we have a few days without having to look at, and WORSE, listen to this jug-eared nonce? So far his only presidential 'success' is to take personal hubris further into the universe than NASA will get after he guts their budget.
4. Largely unnoticed in the media was a 6.4 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Japan. I suppose its not earth-shattering news except that major earthquakes seem to be unusually numerous lately. It is fortunate that so far only one has hit a populated area because even that one has strained the western world's (therefore the world's) disaster response services. A second major disaster while the world is trying to dig Haiti out of the last one could overwhelm private agencies like the Red Cross and add buckets of money to our deficit since America would respond no matter the long term costs to us.
5. Also largely ignored in the US is the economic disaster looming in Europe. Greece is largely insolvent and facing the prospect of being run by EU commissioners - a surefire guarantee that they will never again be solvent. Spain is also on the verge of economic collapse and the London Telegraph has reported that this might cause a "Lehman-like tsunami" of economic collapse throughout the EU. This could decimate the Euro's value and shatter the already fraying political union of Europe. (On the plus side that would temporarily silence talk about replacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency.) Facing the very real prospect of being controlled by the French and Germans, many EU nations could arbitrarily opt out of the Union or hold plebiscite elections regarding leaving the union.
Those events, while damaging to the psyche of Europeans, would pale in comparison to the damaging economic ripples that would hit the world. This could deepen and extend the recession (in spite of what is being said by the white house and media we are still in the recession) or raise the spectre of the 'd-word'; worldwide Depression.
And yet all of that pales in comparison to another disaster I think is looming on the horizon. This disaster threatens the western world like nothing we've encountered before. It could trigger wars, destroy the Constitution and personal liberty like nothing we've considered before, and trigger events that will be equated with the horrors of the Biblical book of Revelation. How's that for a warm-fuzzy beginning to the week?
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